I. Introduction
Before the enlargement of the EU to 10 new member states (NMS) in 2004, there was a universal anxiety that East European countries’ affiliation would possibly slow down the pace of the EU. Nowadays, as three years passed and two new member states joined in following that ten, the anxiety seems being weakened.
Enlarging to East European countries, especially the eight countries which had belonged to former Soviet Union, was considered as a milestone for development of the EU, which bring the EU to a more special and diversified organization, setting a good example of regional integration to the world.
As we know, the process to overcome new obstacles emerged with enlargement was never a smooth or favorable one, on the contrary, it took a long transition and experienced success and failure.
The main objective of this paper is to analyze extrusive problems the EU encountering and then generalize solutions which were adopted and played important roles in the transition period.
Firstly, the background of the EU Eastern Enlargement will be described. Then three problems of challenges will be discussed, which separately refer to productivity gap, budget c and foreign and security problem. After that, pertinently, some solutions will be provided to show the obvious success of the EU to overcome the enlargement issues. Then future map will be expected and possible new problems will be brought forward. At the end, the author will put forward a new perspective to solve new problems, which is, keeping thinking to fusion instead of absorbing.
II. Background of EU Eastern Enlargement
Fundamental change of East European and disintegration of the SU (Soviet Union) indicated that the two-pole structure embodied with contending between the SU and the US was finally ended. In the new polarization and reshuffle of international political powers, East European countries belonging to former Socialism camp turned to the West step by step, establishing Multi-Partism system in polity and market economy, trying to cast of control of the Russia.
Reasons for that are the followings: firstly, establishment of Socialism was not out of East European people’s aspiration but under the pressed control by the SU; secondly, rigescent socialism pattern of the SU resulted in economic depression, political turbulence and unrecoverable social problems, on the contrary, under the EU framework, the West European countries not only solved economic and social problems such as economic crises, high unemployment and social inequality, what’s more, successful economic integration in the EU showed great influence to the East European countries.
New technical revolution combines every country in the world together, no matter its social system, method of production and development level, and enhances mutual dependence among every country and accelerates integrated development of the world[1]. Globalization is an objectively historical process, and Eastern Enlargement of the EU is acclimatizing this process.
III. Problems and challenges
The EU had made a good progress in enlargement during the last 50 years. However, it had never and impossibly been too smoothly successful. A series of complex questions and challenges were always circling it, especially when the EU began enlarging to East European countries, three main issues related with which will be discussed following.
1. Productivity gap between old and new member states
Firstly, there was a huge economic disparity between the EU-15 members and NMS. For example, the per capita income of Eastern and Central Europe, despite massive amounts of Western aid and investment over the last decade, is only 15-30 percent of the EU average. Countries farther east, beyond the Golden Curtain, are poorer still[2]. Anyone who has traveled in Eastern Europe knows there are still large areas characterized by abysmal living standards, high illiteracy rates, substandard housing, malnutrition, disease, low life expectancy, and other conditions associated with the Third World.
Secondly, the unemployment rate in the NMS is relatively higher. In 2004, the average of unemployment rate in the NMS is 14.3%, higher than that of EU-15, 8.1%.
Thirdly, industrial structure of the NMS needed to be adjusted. Although proportion of agriculture in the GDP of the NMS had a slightly descend and service industry ascended a little, compared with the EU-15, they were more dependent on agriculture, resource and manufacturing, facing the problem of transforming the first and second industries to the third one and adjusting population structure.
Fourthly, deepening degree of finance was too low. In 2004, finance capital of the NMS was 2.5-4.5 times of GDP, but the multiple of the EU-15 is 8. Development of finance intermediary organs was also too slow, and the finance system was too dependent on external investment.
The great productivity gap restrained the integral development pace of the EU.
2. Dilemma of the EU budget
The great gap brought an intractable problem to finance distribution system of the enlarged EU. Contractions on the EU budget between new and old member states became more and more stipulated, in this way, the EU finance legal system appeared relatively lagged in the process of integration.
The 2004-2006 budget of finance capital for NMS was concluded by Heads of every state in Copenhagen Conference held from 12th to 13th in December of 2002 (See the following table).
Table 1: The 2004-2006 budget of finance capital for NMS to join the EU[3]
Unit: Million Euros
Year Program | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 |
Agriculture | 1897 | 3747 | 4147 |
Structural Policy Fund | 6095 | 6940 | 8812 |
Internal Policy Expenditure | 1421 | 1376 | 1351 |
Management Cost | 503 | 558 | 612 |
In total | 9952 | 12675 | 14985 |
The income and cost structure of the EU budget is mainly decided by industrial structure and economic power, which results in imbalance between contribution and benefit of every member state. According to Table 1, agriculture and structural fund took up most part of the EU budget in NMS, so carrying out contemporary policies, the EU budget would be surely enlarged in great deal, which means, at the point of contributors of the budget, pure contributing states must give out more and pure benefiting states maybe become pure contributing states, and, at the point of benefiters, these states which had gotten plenty of profits from the budget reallocation will lost some of their benefit. In this way, Eastern Enlargement of the EU would perplex contradictions between “East-West” and “North-South”, even may intensify conflicts and cause crisis.
What’s more, the EU initially expected to improve its status in international political stage by integrating and arriving at “Speak in One word”, but unfortunately, as every member state had voting power in European Parliament and European Council, those member states whose separate interest were damaged usually keep a un-cooperation attitude in every voting within the EU, accordingly, a lot of decision could not be passed in time.
3. Negative influence to EU defense integration
Cold War was over, but the Europe still lacked security. Out of appetence of security, as NATO, the EU chose the orientation going ahead to the East, changing the former counterparties to friends, expecting which will bring security to itself. On January 1st, 2007, the EU absorbed Romania and Bulgaria as member, from then on, almost all the East and Central European countries belonging to Socialism Camp joined in this supranational organization. Eastern Enlargement brought in a series of influence to the foreign and security policies, which enlarged the area to defense and restrain the defense integration that the EU were implementing.
The negative effect can be summarized as the follows:
Firstly, security diversity within the EU was extended. There are 27 member states in the EU, that is to say, there are 27 kinds of national interest and 27 explanations and requirements to security. It is difficult and even impossible to amalgamate the different positions even following the spirits of “seeking similarity and keeping difference”. Cooperation in area of foreign and security policies are sometimes general and incompact, playing little importance in key moment.
Secondly, the imbalance between military power and military target was deepened. After enlargement, the EU got World First in economy and became one of the most important poles in polity. However, its military power did not match its international status. Enlargement to the east did not bring a more powerful armament, on the contrary, it increase security burden to the EU.
Eastern Enlargement caused a series of negative effects to the defense integration. However, as we know, transformation from economic power to military power needs a period of time. In this period, the EU may be tender and full of troubles, but after it finishing the integration, the EU would bring a far-reaching influence to the world.
IV. Improvement of problems
Since 2004 when 10 NMS joined in the EU family, a series of new policies and measures have been adopted. Even though not all the actions are successful, it still has made a good progress.
1. A good pace of economic convergence
Compared with the EU-15, economic convergence in the 10 NMS has made a good advancement, which mostly is represented in the following respects:
Firstly, economic strength has grown at a considerable speed. Calculating according to fixed price, the GDP of the NMS has increased by 4.9% in average by year during the last 5 years, while that of the EU-15 is just 1.6%. The increasing economy in the NMS has pulled integral increase within the EU.
Secondly, inflation has been effectively controlled. In November of 2005, the average inflation rate in the 10 NMS was just 2.8%, obviously descending compared with years before absorption.
Thirdly, trading volume has increased at good speed. Open rate of trade has increased from 32% to 48% during the last ten years, at the same time, that rate in Euro Area has just increased from 27% to 35%.
Fourthly, capital market has been fused and developed. The economic development in the NMS attracted a great deal of foreign direct investment and securities business is becoming amalgamated, for example, stock exchanges in Sweden, Fenland and other 4 states united and established the Nordic and Baltic Stock Exchange.
Overall, integration degree in the EU has run far away from any other organization in the world, even though there are still challenge waiting for the EU old and new member states. As Klaus Liebscher, the governor of the Austrian Central Bank, has said: “the full economic integration process between the old and new EU member states may be longer than monetary unification process, it will be a catching-up process.”
2. Reform of the financial system in the EU
The EU has made a good effort to improve budget dilemma, especially embodied on the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which pertains to the third stage of economic and monetary union (EMU), beginning on 1 January 1999. It is intended to ensure that the Member States maintain budgetary discipline after the single currency has been introduced. The SGP opens the way for the Council to penalize any participating Member State that fails to take appropriate measures to end an excessive deficit. Initially, the penalty would take the form of a non-interest-bearing deposit with the Community, but it could be converted into a fine if the excessive deficit is not corrected within two years[4].
However, up to now, effect of the SGP has shown not so obvious. The NMS are settled in a quandary: on one side, it is too difficult to improve supply conditions of national economy by reducing the tax, meanwhile there is a risk of finance reduction; on the other side, they are compelled to compress finance expenditure and reduce devotion of fundamental establishment, which deteriorates the economic environment.
Accordingly, to reform finance system of the EU, they should begin with amending the SGP. European experts advise that: finance integration should be carried out step by step; distribution of financial budget should follow the economic principle, avoiding from interference of national interest and political elements; there are still much work for the EU to do for bridging bifurcation and incompatibility among member states on the question of voting regime related with enlarged EU.
3. Adjustment of the foreign and security policies
The enlarged EU faces the new border, which bring it new posture and new challenge. There are three levels composing foreign policy of the EU. The first is relation with circumjacent states, which is divided into little circumjacent and big one. The former contains Balkan and East and Central Europe, while the latter includes Mediterranean and Middle East. The second is relation between the EU and the US, and the third one is globally foreign relationships.
The little circumjacent foreign policy, which consists of the following contents, is more related with the eastern enlargement of the EU. Firstly, the EU tried to maintain security and stability of the Middle East by eastern enlargement, weakening national state and establishing a new security structure. Secondly, actions are taken to carrying out stability and association policy to Balkan and facilitate “Color Revolution” in area between its NMS and the Russia. Thirdly, it started up negotiation with Turkey about joining as a member state. Turkey is a regional big country, whose foreign policy directly touches diplomatic, security and economic interest of the EU. Absorption of Turkey will produce structural influence to the EU’s future and establish stable relationships with Mediterranean neighbors and Middle East Islamic countries.
V. A new perspective: from absorption to fusion
In November 2005, a concept of “absorption capability”, which means capability to action, decision-making and executive on the basis of respect of inter-institutional balance and limited budget, was firstly brought forward in documents of the EU enlargement strategies.
On November 8th 2006, the EU Commission delivered an annual evaluation report of negotiation to join the EU, in which a new strategy was brought out for the EU to enlarge in the future. Outstanding of the new strategy is that a new concept of “fusion capability” was used to replace the concept of “absorption capability”. From then on, enlargement of the EU would be more cautious, slow and acceptation to the NMS would be decided according to fusion capability of itself. That is to say, three requirements should be fulfilled: first, the candidates must strictly perform conditions to join in the EU; second, enlargement must be considered with deepening of the integration process and healthy development of EU itself; third, communication with the people should be enhanced and comprehension and support to enlargement from European people should be obtained.
Fusion capability, which emphasizes more on bidirectional character of interest dependence between new and old member states, is a modification and improvement to the concept absorption capability.
VI. Conclusion
Successfully accomplishment of the EU Eastern Enlargement will push the integration to develop more deeply. After getting economic increasing, the EU has enhanced its self-determination consciousness and began to get rid of control and influence of the US and speak in its own words.
Although the EU stands at the same side with the US in maintaining Western value, there has been a great deal of differences relating to global economic interest between the two entities[5]. It is undeniably that the US is still an only super big country in contemporary world, whose economic and military power, technologies and political influence are all incomparable, but the EU, going with China, Russia and the Third countries, will surely restrain the US to build and preserve a "unipolar world" and promote the development of multipolarization.
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Silke Roth. Opportunities And Obstacles-Screening The Eu Enlargement Process From A Gender Perspective. Loyola University Chicago International Law Review. 2004-2005. pp117.
Howard J. Wiarda. Where Does Europe End Now? Expanding Europe's Frontiers and the Dilemmas of Enlargement and Identity. Brown Journal of World Affairs. summer / fall 2005 • volume xii, issue 1.
http://www.europa.eu/index_en.htm.
Li Tao, Wu Hongjin, Li Li. A Hard Road of Eastern Enlargement. Journal of Dali University. November, 2006, Vol 5.
ShiYinhong, New Trendency, New Pattern, and New Criterion, Law Press. 2001.
ShouDe, HongYinxian. “Theory of International politics”. Peking University Press. 2000.
[1] ShouDe, HongYinxian. “Theory of International politics”. Peking University Press. 2000. pp288
[2] The Brown Journal Of World Affairs, Summer / Fall 2005 • Volume Xii, Issue 1
[3] See Copenhagen Conference Document, EU Official Journal, 2002, pp3.
[4] See http://www.europa.eu/index_en.htm
[5] ShiYinhong, New Trendency, New Pattern, and New Criterion, Law Press. 2001.pp157-160.
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