I. Introduction
2005 was an uncommon year for the EU, in which the process of European integration was halted for the frustration encountered by the Constitutional Treaty. Subsequently, anxiety and bewilderment began to go the rounds the EU.
Nowadays, as two years passed, the EU is still wandering outside the door of political integration. What are main obstacles the EU is now confronting to transcend its integration dilemma? And how is the future of the EU?
In this article, five key factors, economy, social problems, system obstacle, relationship between member states and common conscious, will be brought forward to analyze the contemporary situation of the EU. Hereafter, two important issues related with future development of the EU, deepening and enlargement of the European integration will be discussed.
II. Background
Since 1957, the EU has experienced many enlargements, which testimony EU’s development and grandness, and some even become milestones in the process of integration. Especially in 2004, the EU historically enlarged to east, which is peerless in its developing history, no matter number of countries, geography, population and difference of polity, economy and culture between old and new member states. Truly speaking, such features mean problems and challenges to the EU, but the more important meaningfulness of this is that it indicates great success of European integration. The essential difference of this round of enlargement from the former four rounds is that object of this time is Central and East European Socialism countries. In 1990s following the Revulsion of East Europe, when Central and East European Socialism countries were trying their best to return Europe, the EU instinctively, timely and successfully got hold of the occurring-only-once-in-a-thousand-years chance to realize European unification, the core target of European integration after WWII. Achievement of this enlargement indicates the end of abruption of East and West Europe, and foundation established to make the dream of Grant Europe come true. Thus, European integration is endowed real significance of holistic Europe, which will influence not only European development but also combination and diversification of world pattern in new century.
European integration is a zigzag historic process. In 1950s, as the birth of EEC and EURATOM, European integration went in a new age. European economic integration experienced one by one difficult period, but these never stopped the process of integration and got some progress in the field of political integration. The launch of European constitution in 2002 was a new and important development and the signature of European Constitutional Treaty in 2004 symbolize a new milestone in the process of integration. All of these are more important and worthy to emphasize than the fact of failure of the treaty in 2005. Without doubts, the frustration of the treaty is the same as other treaties in the history of the EU, and never avoids negative impacts to the process of European integration, but it is still a growing pain.
III. Key Factors influencing the trend of EU development
The EU is, in many eyes, especially old member states, a community with rich life, stable society and sufficient society security. Actually, the EU is full of problems and it’s very difficult to resolve, which restrain the EU’s future development and solution of such problems decide its orientation to go ahead.
Firstly，in economy, the core question is the long economic depression. These years, economic increase of principal states paces up and down around 1-2%, which is not only obviously lower than the US and even worse than Japan in 2005. Accordingly, all kinds of social, regional and inter-member-states contradictions flood in. what’s more, revenues are reducing, so governments in member states have to use money of future, which results in more and more financial deficits. The EU regulates that financial deficit of every member state should not exceed 3% of total financial budget of this year. However, Germany, France, Italy and Portugal have broken through upper limit several years and gotten warning from the EU. 7 out of 10 new member states joining in 2004 have not met the standard. Public debts of member states become more and more onerous. According to statistics from the EU Commission, balance of public debts in Italy, Belgium and Greece have exceeded their GDP; debt of other 11 states including Germany, France, Holland etc, have exceeded 50% of their GDP. Out of financial budgets of many member states, mature debts paid take a great part.[1]
Secondly, social issues take place ceaselessly. Even though West Europe is a high-welfare society, the network with Medicare,endowment insurance and society relief has become destroyed for economic depression. Unemployment rate has increased these years. In 2005, the registered unemployment rate of the EU is 10%, which was highest in past years. To solve problems above, governments have no excrescent money to add investment to research, education and public establishment. What’s more, declination of birthrate and problem of aging compelled the EU accept more and more immigrants. External immigrants are not able to freely inosculate into local community, which brings forward unstable factors and new social problems.
Thirdly, there is an obstacle of system restricting development of integration. Nobody can answer clearly what is development target of the EU. Somebody hope it will be a free trade area; somebody expect it to be a supranational combination; somebody claim to develop it to a federation. Where does the EU end since quite a number of countries want to join in? Can Turkey be accepted as a member? What about Russia? Most member states complain the institutions do not work quite well. Once analyzing institutions and organs of the EU at different levels, we will find that all the institutions, essentially speaking, are no more than machines of discussion and execution, and there is not an organ with full power of decision making. Up to now, every member state still keeps veto to the EU’s policies, which seems like more democratic but actually result in uncertainty of developing target of the EU.[2]
Fourthly, relationship between member states should be adjusted. Europe is a continent composed of small countries, so its future becomes more and more dependent upon whether a thinking of big country will be formed in these small countries. No matter we like or not, it has been a truth that the enlarged EU consists of small countries. Before, following guideline established by the three big countries Germany, France and the UK, the EU could go forward effectively and bring hope to the EU people. However, in the future, from a long run, the sticking point for the EU to obtain success is that it should combine competitiveness of big countries and small countries. Without this combination, the EU will achieve nothing in political area.[3]
Fifthly, common conscious is still indifferent within the EU. Totally speaking, notwithstanding the European integration has passed half century, on the contrary, attention and understanding of European people to the EU becomes reducing.[4] Attraction and influential power of the EU to its citizens are cutting down. One of reasons is that the EU has been lead by social elite from every state, most decisions are decided by compromise and interest-exchange of political leaders behind the curtain, and there is no chance for public to speak one word. Second reason is that, as analyzed above, economic and social problems people encountering during the process of integration strike their enthusiasm to participate Union affairs. Another reason is that communication is not sufficient between the EU Institutions and people, which results in insufficient understanding of benefits to be brought by integration to European people. For reasons above, the EU is being settled in a puzzled situation in risk of losing demotic support and weakness of people’s common conscious. The common conscious to the EU is the most important foundation to establish a unified Europe politically and culturally, especially today when these political elites cannot preside the integration process by themselves any more. Without eliminating the crisis of common conscious, the EU will have to do nothing but wait for ratification of the Constitutional Treaty as of old.
IV. Widening and deepening of EU
European integration is a comprehensive and systematic project, which relates with different areas of economic, political social, etc. That is to say, a full-scale integration of economy, polity and society is initial part of European integration; at the point of approach and measure to its realization, the essential questions to resolve are deepening and enlargement, which are two wheels, being reciprocal causation and interpromomtion, supplementing each other, and driving the EU to develop ahead.[5]
Deepening promoted by the Constitutional Treaty
Constitution making and ratification of the Constitutional Treaty are further appearance and logic result of reaction and stimulated effect of European enlargement to its deepening. It is universally considered that a Constitution promoting revolution of political system of the EU must be established to insure the EU continue working smoothly after enlarging to 27 member states.
Presently, although the Constitutional Treaty encountered obstacles in some states, what we should do is to analyze the frustration rationally and keep a positive attitude to foreground of the EU.
Firstly, the deadline to ratify the Constitutional Treaty has been put off by EU Resolution. As interests related with the Treaty are so complicated that it is normal for the EU to make a measurable adjustment, which will derogate authority of the Treaty, on the contrary, it will be propitious to governments of member states to propagandize and persuade public within a reasonable period.
Secondly, draft of the Treaty prescribed an especially flexible clause[6], analyzing from which we will find that the principle of unanimity in the EU is not rigescent but can be modified. Although the Constitutional Treaty was encountered frustration temporarily, the number of states seems impossible to arrive at 5 as the flexible clause stipulated.
Thirdly, it is historically proved that every crisis the EU confronted with will be eliminated as last. One or two states’ rejection to European integration cannot compose impassable obstacle, which is normality in the road to going forward. Accordingly, this so-called Constitution Crisis will be nothing but only seeming like danger.
Fourthly, what French and Dutch people opposed is not the Constitutional Treaty itself and not the Constitutionalism progress. According to a public-opinion poll finished by the European commission and published on June 16, 2005, 52% of French people and 44% Dutch people agreed that the Constitutional Treaty was meaningful to construction of the European integration, and the reason why French people denied the Treaty was its internal social, economic and political problems; the reason in Netherland was its insufficient drumbeating.[7]
The developing process for the EU is also a process to conform all kinds of interest together. The Constitutional Treaty is the summary for hard work of the last decades of years and also regulations to comminute interests nowadays and future, thereby, contradictions and bifurcations are indispensible. Ratification of the Constitutional Treaty indicates a brand-new stage for European political integration and embodies correctness of conjunct to self-reliance and peaceful logos.
A new perspective: change absorption to fusions
In November 2005, a concept of “absorption capability”, which means capability to action, decision-making and executive on the basis of respect of inter-institutional balance and limited budget, was firstly brought forward in documents of the EU enlargement strategies.
On November 8th 2006, the EU Commission delivered an annual evaluation report of negotiation to join the EU, in which a new strategy was brought out for the EU to enlarge in the future. Outstanding of the new strategy is that a new concept of “fusion capability” was used to replace the concept of “absorption capability”. From then on, enlargement of the EU would be more cautious, slow and acceptation to the NMS would be decided according to fusion capability of itself. That is to say, three requirements should be fulfilled: first, the candidates must strictly perform conditions to join in the EU; second, enlargement must be considered with deepening of the integration process and healthy development of EU itself; third, communication with the people should be enhanced and comprehension and support to enlargement from European people should be obtained.[8]
Fusion capability, which emphasizes more on bidirectional character of interest dependence between new and old member states, is a modification and improvement to the concept absorption capability.
European integration is not only embodied a deepening process where European states relinquish national power and sovereignty gradually to the EU but also an enlarging process to absorb other European countries into the EU. To be sure, every enlargement of the EU will increase diversity among member states at different level, and consequently constitutes restriction to deepening of European integration in a specific period or a specific area. However, this kind of restriction is usually temporary, which will never be able to stop the pace of integration.
V. Conclusion
Europeans have learned how to deal with crisis and how to compromise and seek balance after mutual study in the progress of integration in the past 50 years. Therefore, when encountered frustration, leaders of the EU are usually capable to find out the balance point which can be accepted by two counterparts and erase dangerous for the integration process to go ahead smoothly. It is believable that after a period of reassessment, this crisis of Constitutional Treaty will be eliminated according to compromise among member states.
Europe has a long and dignified history and the Europeans have venerable historical sense of mission. They pay great attention to summarize historical experience and are good at search answers to realistic problems from historical experience.
On the future road, there will be plenty of difficulties to solve for European integration. It is obvious that the EU has become a highly integrated Union, whose member states have been involved in areas of economy, polity and society. To speak in one word, European integration is a historical process with inner motivation and development logic, and a significant enterprise aiming to enhance Europe to grow up renewedly. These motivation, target and dream bear the weight of history and refulgence, and will continue to assist the EU to stretch wings to fly.
Reference
l Zhou Wei, Establishment and foreground of European Constitutional Treaty, Journal of ShanXi Politics and Law Institute for Administrator, Vol 19. No. 2, June, 2006.
l Su Huimin, the EU Is Confronting Difficult Transformation, Journal of Peace and Development, No.1, 2006.
l Wang Li, New Strategic for Enlargement of the EU, International Materials Information, No.11, 2006.
l Zhao Huaipu, Several Points of view about situation and orientation of the EU, Journal of International Issues Research, No.2, 2006.
l Zhang Jian, Identification crisis restricts development of the EU, People’s daily, 20th Oct. 2006
l Tinothy Sitka Dayton Ashe, The future of EU will gradually be dependent on small member states, source from www.singtaonet.com
[1] Su Huimin, the EU Is Confronting Difficult Transformation, Journal of Peace and Development, No.1, 2006. Pp49-50.
[2] Ld.
[3] Tinothy Sitka Dayton Ashe, The future of EU will gradually be dependent on small member states, source from www.singtaonet.com
[4] Zhang Jian, Identification crisis restricts development of the EU, People’s daily, 20th Oct. 2006
[5] Zhao Huaipu, Several Points of view about situation and orientation of the EU, Journal of International Issues Research, No.2, 2006. Pp 37.
[6] See Article 30 of Appendix of Constitutional Treaty.
[7] Zhou Wei, Establishment and foreground of European Constitutional Treaty, Journal of ShanXi Politics and Law Institute for Administrator, Vol 19. No. 2, June, 2006. Pp1-4.
[8] Wang Li, New Strategic for Enlargement of the EU, International Materials Information. No.11, 2006. Pp41-42.
